WRITTEN ON NOVEMBER 30, 2019
OU is ranked 7th in the College Football Playoff rankings. Ahead of them is Utah, Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State.
If Selection Sunday was tomorrow, OU would be far outside of the four teams that receive invitations. But after a few weeks, things could be different. Here’s what needs to happen:
OU has to win out. That's a given. The Sooners have to beat 21-ranked Oklahoma State tomorrow in Stillwater. It won’t be an easy task, considering Chubba Hubbard is one of the best running backs in the country. Thankfully, the Sooners running defense hasn’t been all that bad. It’s the passing defense that has been struggling.
After that, OU needs to beat a highly ranked Baylor team in the Big 12 Championship. The Sooners have beaten them before (in historic comeback fashion) and they would have to do it again. They would be at a neutral location, which helps, and OU's best offensive weapon, CeeDee Lamb. would be healthy. It will be a tough game, but I think the Sooners can pull it off.
Aside from winning out, some other things need to fall in place. Auburn needs to beat Alabama. In 2017, a one-loss Alabama team made the playoff without playing in the SEC Championship game. They went on to win the National Championship. This current Alabama team is in a similar scenario - being a one-loss team that won’t play in the SEC Championship. Given the precedent Alabama has set, it is key for Auburn to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl to give them two losses. A two-loss Alabama team will not make the playoff.
Next, LSU needs to beat Georgia. LSU has amassed an impressive resume this year with wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama, all ranked in the top ten when the games were played. The Tigers are a lock for the playoff, regardless of a win or loss in the SEC championship game. This is exactly why LSU needs to win. If Georgia wins, they make the playoff and so does LSU. Two SEC teams get in, throw in Ohio State and Clemson, and there is no room for OU at the table.
Lastly, there is the PAC-12 Championship game. This is a tricky one. Utah, like OU, is a one-loss team. If Utah beats Oregon, then the committee will have to choose between a one-loss PAC-12 champ and a one-loss Big 12 champ. Given OU’s recent history in the playoffs (three invitations, zero wins), the committee might want to include a PAC-12 team just to shake things up. OU's odds aren't good in that scenario.
If OU beats Baylor, Auburn beats Alabama, LSU beats Georgia, and Utah loses to Oregon, OU will most likely make the college football playoff for the third year in a row.
OU wide receiver CeeDee Lamb flashes a "horns down." - Via The Athletic